SpaceX IPO Buzz Electrifies the Sector as RKLB Goes on a Tear

This Week's Big Picture

SpaceX IPO Buzz Electrifies the Sector as RKLB Goes on a Tear

Space stocks surged mid-week on a cluster of catalysts: Rocket Lab closed the Mynaric acquisition, unveiled a new satellite thruster, and got upgraded to Outperform. Meanwhile, the Iran ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz sent defense stocks sliding — but the longer-term spending narrative remains intact. The SpaceX public S-1 could drop any day now, and when it does, expect every space name to move.

SpaceX filed its confidential S-1 with the SEC on April 1 and is targeting a June Nasdaq listing at a $1.75 trillion valuation — potentially the largest IPO in history. The company is seeking to raise up to $75 billion, which would more than triple the previous U.S. IPO record. The valuation is anchored by Starlink, which ended 2025 with 9.2 million subscribers across 150 countries and an estimated $10B+ in revenue. The filing comes after SpaceX's February merger with Elon Musk's xAI venture, further inflating the combined entity's value. Uniquely, SpaceX is reportedly allocating ~30% of IPO shares to retail investors — three times the Wall Street norm. The public S-1 must drop at least 15 days before the roadshow, meaning it could go public any week now. When it does, every space name on this list will react.

SpaceX IPO

This was arguably the busiest week for any space stock all year. On April 14, Rocket Lab officially closed its $155.3M acquisition of Mynaric AG, bringing laser optical communications terminals in-house and establishing the company's first European footprint in Munich. The timing matters: Mynaric's laser links are central to Rocket Lab's $1.3B Space Development Agency prime contract to build 36 satellites. On the same day, the company unveiled the Gauss electric Hall-effect satellite thruster — an in-house propulsion product designed for 200+ units per year, targeting both commercial and national security constellations. That shifts RKLB's revenue profile from lumpy launch checks toward recurring, higher-margin satellite systems. Add in a Citizens upgrade to Outperform with an $85 price target (vs. ~$83 close), a fresh multi-launch deal lifting iQPS's total contracted missions to 15, and CEO Peter Beck reducing his salary to $1 and forfeiting $392K in RSUs — and you have a stock that checked every catalyst box in a single week. Q1 2026 earnings are scheduled for May 7. Backlog now exceeds $2 billion total.

Acquisition Satellite systems Analyst upgrade Insider signal

ASTS had a week of two halves. Shares slipped ~6.5% on April 14 when BlueBird 7's launch window on Blue Origin's New Glenn shifted by two days to April 16, triggering pre-event profit-taking in a highly volatile name. The mission — the company's largest BlueBird satellite yet, capable of processing 10x more data than its Block 1 predecessor — is a critical step toward the 45–60 satellite deployment target by end-2026. The bigger picture: AST holds over $1 billion in contracted revenue commitments, reported Q4 2025 revenue of $70.9M (a massive YoY jump), and still trades up roughly 332% over the past 12 months. The company is building a space-based direct-to-device cellular broadband network — telecom partners include AT&T, Verizon, TELUS, Orange, and Vodafone. With the SpaceX IPO expected to bring a wave of institutional capital into the sector, ASTS is one of the highest-beta beneficiaries.

Launch even Constellation build Direct-to-device

Intuitive Machines is quietly becoming the most credible near-term profitability story in commercial space. Following its $800M acquisition of Lanteris Space Systems (closed Q1 2026), the company guided for $900M–$1B in 2026 revenue — a nearly 5x jump from the $210M reported in 2025 — and is targeting positive adjusted EBITDA this year. This week, shares surged ~6% alongside Rocket Lab on the broader space sector momentum driven by NASA contract visibility and the SpaceX IPO halo effect. The company also secured a $180.4M NASA contract for a lunar mission and signed a 7th Private Astronaut Mission order with NASA for ISS access no earlier than 2028. Voyager Technologies (VOYG) also signed that ISS order, worth noting for those tracking the broader lunar economy ecosystem. Deutsche Bank has flagged LUNR as a top idea on America's return to the moon.

NASA Lunar economy Near-term profitability

On April 11, Northrop Grumman launched its second Cygnus XL spacecraft on a SpaceX Falcon 9 from Cape Canaveral, continuing its commercial resupply and logistics services work. For NOC, the space systems segment is increasingly relevant alongside its core defense business: the company enters 2026 with a record $95.7B backlog (up sharply YoY), with analysts at Citigroup recently raising their price target to $807. Separately, Morgan Stanley's Kristine Liwag flagged NOC's potential to secure major awards related to the B-21 Raider acceleration, F/A-XX, and the Golden Dome missile defense project this year — any one of which would be a material catalyst. Artemis II's successful return (Orion splashed down April 10) also enhanced long-term revenue visibility for defense contractors deeply involved in NASA programs.

Cygnus launch B-21 Raider Artemis II

On April 10, the Artemis II crew splashed down after traveling 694,481 miles to the Moon and back — the first crewed deep-space mission in 53 years. The mission validates Lockheed Martin's Orion capsule for future lunar exploration and gives a long-term boost to the lunar economy narrative that benefits LUNR, RKLB, and the broader sector. Investigators are currently examining some discoloration of the heat shield. Separately, Lockheed was awarded a multibillion-dollar contract for continued accelerated production of PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement interceptors. LMT's Q1 2026 earnings call is scheduled for April 23 — watch for updates on F-35 production rates, THAAD deliveries, and margin trajectory.

Artemis II Orion capsule Earnings April 23

Firefly Aerospace announced a collaboration with NVIDIA on April 8 to run AI software on an NVIDIA Jetson module aboard its Elytra spacecraft in lunar orbit — enabling faster, on-orbit data processing from the Moon. Meanwhile, Planet Labs (PL) separately disclosed the successful deployment of AI-driven object detection onboard its Pelican-4 satellite. Both announcements reflect an accelerating trend: AI is moving off the ground and into orbit, and the companies building the hardware layer — Firefly, Planet, and eventually AST — are positioning themselves in a defensible, high-value niche. Firefly's stock has been a relative underperformer vs. peers YTD, making it a name to watch if execution continues improving.

Edge A Lunar orbit On-orbit computing

The dominant macro event of the week for defense investors: on April 17, Iran's Foreign Minister declared the Strait of Hormuz open to all commercial shipping for the duration of the Lebanon ceasefire. Oil prices dropped more than 11% on the news. Shares of Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman fell on Wednesday following President Trump's ceasefire announcement — a classic "sell the peace" reaction after defense stocks had rallied sharply during the conflict. Context: a defense sector ETF had already declined roughly 8% since the Iran war began in late February. However, the ceasefire is fragile: it runs only through ~April 26 (Lebanon component), and negotiations on Iran's nuclear program remain unresolved. The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in effect. For long-term defense investors, the spending narrative hasn't changed — the FY2027 budget proposal is $1.5 trillion.

Geopolitical Ceasefire Near-term headwind

On April 13, Textron Aviation Defense was awarded a five-year government contract worth over $150M (with total potential value reaching ~$510M) to provide engineering and program management support for the Beechcraft T-6 Texan II fleet. The contract covers maintenance, repairs, and system upgrades for more than 700 aircraft across the Air Force, Navy, and Army. This is the type of bread-and-butter, multi-year recurring contract that drives steady free cash flow for mid-tier defense names. Zacks consensus estimates for TXT now call for 4.7% revenue growth and 7.4% EPS growth in 2026 YoY.

Government contract Training aircraft Recurring revenue

Three names getting renewed attention from analysts as the Iran conflict highlights the importance of edge AI and missile-tracking infrastructure. Mercury Systems recently won two defense contract extensions, including a supply deal for a national security satellite program (radiation-tolerant wideband storage and processing units). Leonardo DRS is building infrared payloads for the Space Development Agency's Tracking Layer Tranche 3 — part of a ~30-satellite constellation designed to track hypersonic missiles from orbit. Parsons (PSN) rounds out the group: its SealingTech subsidiary holds a $500M contract from U.S. Cyber Command for the Joint Cyber Hunt Kit. KeyBanc has also flagged Kratos (KTOS) as a high-conviction idea, noting its exposure to high-tech defense platforms and a premium valuation that it considers "appropriate given the structural shift."

Edge AI Missile tracking Space SDA