The $1.75 Trillion Launch: SpaceX Is Going Public

Key Dates to Watch:

Quick update on SpaceX IPO

SpaceX's roadshow is scheduled to begin June 8. Roughly 125 financial analysts from 21 banks will meet with management the day before. A major investor event for approximately 1,500 retail investors is planned around June 11. The prospectus is expected to go public in late May. Prediction markets on Kalshi show ~83% odds the IPO closes before July 1.

Intuitive Machines (LUNR) stands out as the most financially mature pure-play space company outside SpaceX. Management guided for $900M–$1B in 2026 revenue — nearly five times the $210M reported in 2025 — driven by acquisitions, NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program, and defense engineering work. The company also guided for positive adjusted EBITDA in 2026, which would make it one of the first pure-play space companies to reach that milestone.

The company's recent acquisition of Lanteris Space Systems adds in-house satellite manufacturing at scale and expands LUNR into high-growth data services. KeyBanc named Intuitive Machines a preferred name, citing its front-runner position in NASA's lunar terrain vehicle (LTV) contract and the Lanteris deal as "another transformational catalyst."

LUNR's broader Artemis II mission tailwind is real: NASA ETF manager Yuri Khodjamirian (TEMA ETFs) argued in a Stocktwits interview that newer players like LUNR, RKLB, and ASTS will outpace legacy primes as the new lunar economy takes shape — pointing to their commercial agility versus Boeing and Lockheed's slower government-contract model.

LUNR Intuitive Machines Profitability

RTX (Apr 21) delivered the standout performance, beating EPS estimates by 17% and raising FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $6.70–$6.90 (from $6.60–$6.80). Revenue grew 8.7% year-over-year. Key contract wins driving momentum include a potential $11.9B Germany combat systems deal (jointly with Lockheed), a $213.4M Navy modification for Zumwalt-class destroyers, and an Australian electronic warfare jammer contract. RTX enters the rest of 2026 with a record backlog and guided $8.25–8.75B in free cash flow.

Northrop Grumman (Apr 21) reported Q1 revenue of $9.9B (up 4.4%) and EPS of $6.14 — both above consensus. Net income surged 82% as the company recovered from prior-year B-21 Raider program losses. CEO Kathy Warden called it an "unprecedented global demand environment." The B-21 Raider continues to attract accelerated production interest from the U.S. Air Force, and Northrop's record backlog could grow further with F/A-XX and Golden Dome contract awards expected in 2026.

Lockheed Martin (Apr 23) missed on both lines — diluted EPS of $6.44 vs. $6.77 expected, revenue of $18.0B vs. $18.4B, and free cash flow was negative at -$291M. Shares fell 6.3% on the day. Execution challenges in Aeronautics and RMS were cited. That said, LMT reaffirmed full-year guidance of $77.5–$80.0B in sales, and CEO Jim Taiclet highlighted the Orion spacecraft's Artemis II role and continued F-35/F-22 demand. The $186B backlog remains structurally intact.

Earnings Northrop Grumman RTX